The Effects on Caffeine on Cycling Performance in College-Aged Males

Please download pdf version here

Measurement of the anisotropy power spectrum of the radio synchrotron background

We present the first targeted measurement of the power spectrum of anisotropies of the radio synchrotron background, at 140 MHz where it is the overwhelmingly dominant photon background. This measurement is important for understanding the background level of radio sky brightness, which is dominated by steep-spectrum synchrotron radiation at frequencies below 0.5 GHz and has been measured to be significantly higher than that which can be produced by known classes of extragalactic sources and most models of Galactic halo emission. We determine the anisotropy power spectrum on scales ranging from 2 degrees to 0.2 arcminutes with LOFAR observations of two 18 square degree fields -- one centered on the Northern hemisphere coldest patch of radio sky where the Galactic contribution is smallest and one offset from that location by 15 degrees. We find that the anisotropy power is higher than that attributable to the distribution of point sources above 100 micro-Jy in flux. This level of radio anisotropy power indicates that if it results from point sources, those sources are likely at low fluxes and incredibly numerous, and likely clustered in a specific manner.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, published in MNRAS, updated to published versio

Nonextensive statistical features of the Polish stock market fluctuations

The statistics of return distributions on various time scales constitutes one of the most informative characteristics of the financial dynamics. Here we present a systematic study of such characteristics for the Polish stock market index WIG20 over the period 04.01.1999 - 31.10.2005 for the time lags ranging from one minute up to one hour. This market is commonly classified as emerging. Still on the shortest time scales studied we find that the tails of the return distributions are consistent with the inverse cubic power-law, as identified previously for majority of the mature markets. Within the time scales studied a quick and considerable departure from this law towards a Gaussian can however be traced. Interestingly, all the forms of the distributions observed can be comprised by the single $q$-Gaussians which provide a satisfactory and at the same time compact representation of the distribution of return fluctuations over all magnitudes of their variation. The corresponding nonextensivity parameter $q$ is found to systematically decrease when increasing the time scales.Comment: 14 pages. Physica A in prin

Diffuse Sources, Clustering and the Excess Anisotropy of the Radio Synchrotron Background

We present the largest low frequency (120~MHz) arcminute resolution image of the radio synchrotron background (RSB) to date, and its corresponding angular power spectrum of anisotropies (APS) with angular scales ranging from $3^\circ$ to $0.3^\prime$. We show that the RSB around the North Celestial Pole has a significant excess anisotropy power at all scales over a model of unclustered point sources based on source counts of known source classes. This anisotropy excess, which does not seem attributable to the diffuse Galactic emission, could be linked to the surface brightness excess of the RSB. To better understand the information contained within the measured APS, we model the RSB varying the brightness distribution, size, and angular clustering of potential sources. We show that the observed APS could be produced by a population of faint clustered point sources only if the clustering is extreme and the size of the Gaussian clusters is $\lesssim 1'$. We also show that the observed APS could be produced by a population of faint diffuse sources with sizes $\lesssim 1'$, and this is supported by features present in our image. Both of these cases would also cause an associated surface brightness excess. These classes of sources are in a parameter space not well probed by even the deepest radio surveys to date.Comment: 13 pages, 14 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRA

Testing stock market convergence: a non-linear factor approach

This paper applies the Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75(6):1771–1855, 2007) method to test for convergence in stock returns to an extensive dataset including monthly stock price indices for five EU countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and the UK) as well as the US between 1973 and 2008. We carry out the analysis on both sectors and individual industries within sectors. As a first step, we use the Stock and Watson (J Am Stat Assoc 93(441):349–358, 1998) procedure to filter the data in order to extract the long-run component of the series; then, following Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75(6):1771–1855, 2007), we estimate the relative transition parameters. In the case of sectoral indices we find convergence in the middle of the sample period, followed by divergence, and detect four (two large and two small) clusters. The analysis at a disaggregate, industry level again points to convergence in the middle of the sample, and subsequent divergence, but a much larger number of clusters is now found. Splitting the cross-section into two subgroups including euro area countries, the UK and the US respectively, provides evidence of a global convergence/divergence process not obviously influenced by EU policies

Quadratic optimal functional quantization of stochastic processes and numerical applications

In this paper, we present an overview of the recent developments of functional quantization of stochastic processes, with an emphasis on the quadratic case. Functional quantization is a way to approximate a process, viewed as a Hilbert-valued random variable, using a nearest neighbour projection on a finite codebook. A special emphasis is made on the computational aspects and the numerical applications, in particular the pricing of some path-dependent European options.Comment: 41 page

A longitudinal implementation evaluation of a physical activity program for cancer survivors: LIVESTRONG(R) at the YMCA

Purpose: Increased physical activity (PA) levels in cancer survivors are associated with decreased risk of recurrence and mortality as well as additional positive health outcomes. PA interventions have shown to be efficacious, though many lack translation to and sustainability in community settings. We used dimensions of the RE-AIM framework to evaluate LIVESTRONG(R) at the YMCA, a nation-wide community-based PA program for cancer survivors delivered at Ys. Methods: This was a longitudinal study design using national LIVESTRONG at the YMCA data compiled between 2010 and 2018. Data is from all YMCAs who deliver LIVESTRONG at the YMCA, submitted by Program Directors to the YMCA-USA. We assessed reach (number of participants), adoption (associations offering the program), implementation (conducting 3 fidelity checks), and organizational level maintenance (associations recently offering program). We also examined relationships between organizational characteristics (years of program existence and association area household income) and program implementation factors with member conversion rates. Results: As of 2018, LIVESTRONG at the YMCA has reached 62,044 survivors and 245 of the 840 (29.2%) of Y associations have adopted the program. Among the adopters, 91% were aware of fidelity checks; implementation of observational (62.3%), goal setting (49.9%), and functional (64.6%) checklists varied. Most (95.1%) adopters reported offering \u3e /= 1 LIVESTRONG session per year (organizational-level maintenance) and a facility-level mean membership conversion percentage of 46.9 +/- 31.2%. Fewer years implementing the program and higher association area household income were significantly associated with a greater membership conversion rate vs their comparison. In a multiple regression model controlling for organizational characteristics, conducting the fidelity checks independently (observational, beta = 8.41; goal-setting, beta = 9.70; and functional, beta = 9.61) and collectively (beta = 10.82; 95% CI 5.90-16.80) was positively associated with higher membership conversion rates. Conclusions: LIVESTRONG at the YMCA, in its early years, has shown promise for high reach, while adoption at more associations could be facilitated. Implementing fidelity checks along with organizational characteristics were associated with membership conversion rate. Identification of association-level strategies to increase reach, adoption, implementation, and maintenance may increase the impact of this community-based PA program

Global Health and Economic Impacts of Future Ozone Pollution

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).We assess the human health and economic impacts of projected 2000-2050 changes in ozone pollution using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis-Health Effects (EPPA-HE) model, in combination with results from the GEOS-Chem global tropospheric chemistry model that simulated climate and chemistry effects of IPCC SRES emissions. We use EPPA to assess the human health damages (including acute mortality and morbidity outcomes) caused by ozone pollution and quantify their economic impacts in sixteen world regions. We compare the costs of ozone pollution under scenarios with 2000 and 2050 ozone precursor and greenhouse gas emissions (SRES A1B scenario). We estimate that health costs due to global ozone pollution above pre-industrial levels by 2050 will be $580 billion (year 2000$) and that acute mortalities will exceed 2 million. We find that previous methodologies underestimate costs of air pollution by more than a third because they do not take into account the long-term, compounding effects of health costs. The economic effects of emissions changes far exceed the influence of climate alone.United States Department of Energy, Office of Science (BER) grants DE-FG02-94ER61937 and DE-FG02-93ER61677, the United States Environmental Protection Agency grant EPA-XA-83344601-0, and the industrial and foundation sponsors of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

Continuous Equilibrium in Affine and Information-Based Capital Asset Pricing Models

We consider a class of generalized capital asset pricing models in continuous time with a finite number of agents and tradable securities. The securities may not be sufficient to span all sources of uncertainty. If the agents have exponential utility functions and the individual endowments are spanned by the securities, an equilibrium exists and the agents' optimal trading strategies are constant. Affine processes, and the theory of information-based asset pricing are used to model the endogenous asset price dynamics and the terminal payoff. The derived semi-explicit pricing formulae are applied to numerically analyze the impact of the agents' risk aversion on the implied volatility of simultaneously-traded European-style options.Comment: 24 pages, 4 figure